With the Wikipedia blackout in the face of protests over SOPA/PIPA we here at Centives began to realize just how much Wikipedia is worth to us. This led us to wonder: how much is Wikipedia actually worth in dollar terms? Centives decided to find out. There are several ways to value a massive encyclopedia on the scale of the English version of Wikipedia and each method has its merits. Centives decided to estimate its value by examining how much Read the rest of this entry →

How many Zombies does it take to conquer any given empire or army? Centives decided to find out.

So what is a zombie horde? Think lots of men running towards you trying to eat your brain/arms/spleen. Unarmed but if they get to you, really its game over unless you happen to be wearing a suit of armour. Most people, as far as I know, do not wear this normally. Now obviously there have been no known zombie hordes to date combated, so here’s a best estimate. Taking the infamous battle of Isandlwana, 1,800 British troops armed with rifles were defeated by 25,000 Zulu in 1879. Or, it took thirteen men with spears to take down each Brit armed with a rifle. Not bad! But what about in modern times?

In terms of zombie hunting ability, the biggest change has to be the Read the rest of this entry →

It has seized on a deep seated fear in American culture and triumphed in ratings and critical reviews: Dexter, the show about a serial killer whose targets are well… other serial killers. Dexter Morgan, the main character and lab geek working for Miami metro homicide is played by actor Michael C. Hall and throughout the series happens upon more than his fair share of fellow serial killers. He not only has a knack for jiu-jitsu but also an uncanny ability to recognize his fellow killers. It seems a bit strange that there are so many serial killers in Miami for Dexter to find, especially since the FBI estimates that there are probably only about 100 serial killers active in the entire US at any one time (and that is on the high end). Even so, it is interesting to note that Dexter performs some kind of service to the city of Miami when he disposes of these serial killers. Regardless of the moral implications of his actions, he undoubtedly saves money for the Miami police department and federal government by removing his peers. Assuming all of these individuals would actually be pursued by police investigators, vast resources would need to be utilized in labor costs alone. For instance, 13 people were killed by Dexter in the first season alone.

Centives investigated the cost of attempting to catch a large-scale serial killer located in a major US city and found it to be around 265,000 dollars per day in current dollars. In order to determine the approximate savings realized through a lack of inquiry into Dexter’s victims, Centives estimates that about half of the serial killers would eventually be investigated. Son of Sam, a notorious serial killer in New York, was investigated for about a year before he was caught, and so this was a benchmark for our timeframe for each investigation. With these numbers, in just one season of Dexter, 7 serial killers would be investigated for about a year each at a cost of 265,000 dollars a day. This would yield a result of a staggering 677 million dollars. Because, many resources would overlap, this number should be reduced somewhat, so our final estimate is about 500 million dollars. Off hand, this number seems very high, but keep in mind, the odds of 7 serial killers being investigated in one city in this short of a time is extremely low. If however we assume there is just one major investigation in this span of time, Dexter saves the government 96 million dollars. Whether he is good or evil, one thing is for certain, Dexter is good for the police budget.

Sometime in the next few days, thousands of aspiring lawyers across the United States will be receiving their LSAT results. But when exactly? The scores are scheduled to come out on Friday, the 6^th of January. But in the past decade LSAT scores have always come out before their scheduled release. Is it possible to predict with any level of certainty exactly when the scores will actually come out? After our success at predicting the release date of the October 2011 LSAT, Centives decided to find out.

The short answer is that we think the scores will be released on W Read the rest of this entry →

This offseason, the Philadelphia Eagles decided they would not be content with just adding depth to their roster in free agency, they wanted top talent. The season prior, the Eagles had looked like a strong team, but were eliminated by the eventual Super Bowl champion Packers. They went out and signed a litany of players including their biggest target, Nnamdi Asomugha, and the resulting press had many pundits picking them to be one of the favorites for the Super Bowl. Their moves undeniably added depth and talent to their team but after losing to the Patriots on Sunday their record dropped to 4-7. According to Football Outsiders the Eagles’s chance of getting into the playoffs this year fell to 2.7 percent following the loss.

How did the Eagles get here? Even though the Eagles looked like the Read the rest of this entry →