It turns out that rather than political pundits, ESPN forecasters might have the best idea of whose about to win the American Presidency in 2012:

• A study has found that the result of a college football game can alter the election.
• In particular, if the home team wins a week before the election, then the incumbent can expect to see a 1.5% surge at the polls, because people are happier about how things are going in their airea.
• If the home team wins on the eve of the election the incumbent could see a 3% boost.
• Surprise victories are worth more to the incumbent than expected ones.
• This result also seems to hold true for basketball game results.
• Since the 2012 election is expected to depend upon the results in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia; a couple of football games on October 27^th might determine the future of the United States of America.

The authors conclude by suggesting that the candidates discuss football strategy with the playing teams before the game. Read more about the study and its limits over here.

Source: Slate