Stephen Snyder presented some baffling research on ceasefire agreements:

• The vast majority of ceasefires – about 80% – fail.
• But the best predictor of if a ceasefire will succeed is a high number of prior failed ceasefires.
• This seems to be driven by a deeper commitment to secure peace after previous failed attempts.
• With more experience, negotiators address the weaknesses of previous ceasefire agreements, ensuring more durable attempts in the future.

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