Sometime next week the 2013 Nobel Prize for Literature will be announced. Chris Wright wrote about the bookies who might already know the answer:

• The process of awarding the Prize is incredibly secretive. Not even the list of candidates being considered for the award are disclosed.
• Nor does the committee disclose the methodology through which they award the prize, or the rationale for their decision.
• Yet the gambling markets have correctly identified the winner 50% of the time.
• In contrast a noted literary expert has only correctly predicted it once in 20 years.
• Those who set the initial odds don’t read any of the potential books – instead they look at things like industry chatter, the author’s nationality and historical precedent.
• In 2013 the markets are indicating that Haruki Murakami will be the winner.

Read more about how the gambling markets create a positive feedback loop and more over here.

Source: The Boston Globe