Sometime in the next few days, thousands of aspiring lawyers across the United States will be receiving their LSAT results. But when exactly? The scores are scheduled to come out on Wednesday, the 26^th of October. But in the past decade LSAT scores have always come out before their scheduled release. Is it possible to predict with any level of certainty exactly when the scores will actually come out? Centives decided to find out.

The short answer is that Centives believes that the LSAT results will be released on October 24^th (Monday.) (We were right!) We came to that conclusion using data on past release date discrepancies from Manhattan LSAT, which covers the period from June 2004 to June 2011. The methodology we used to arrive at our conclusion is outlined below.

Collectively, we looked at factors including:

1. The frequency of the number of days in advance that the score has been released.
2. The average number of days per calendar year.
3. The Coefficient of Variation of the statistics.
4. How the numbers vary by administration date.

The frequency distribution of the number of days in advance that the score has come out is:

The graph shows that LSAT scores most often come out between two and four days before the scheduled date of release.

Let’s take a closer look at the data by calendar year:

Aside from a sharp increase between 2005 and 2006, the average number of days in advance that test takers have received an email informing them of their LSAT performance has been falling every year. In 2010 the scores came out 2.75 days before schedule. In 2011 so far the scores have beat the estimated release date by 2.5 days.

The coefficient of variation is a measure of how disperse the data is. A high coefficient of variation indicates data that is widely dispersed. A low coefficient of variation means that the data is tightly concentrated:

From 2007 onwards the coefficient of variation for score release dates has trended downwards. If this trend continues then we can predict with some reliability how many days in advance that the scores will come out based on when they have come out so far this year. In the first 2011 exam session the score came out two days before schedule, and in the second session the scores were released three days ahead of schedule. The low coefficient of variation that we expect for this year would suggest that the scores will be posted about two to three days before schedule again.

Centives also examined the data by exam session. The LSAT is administered over four quarters:

On average in the October administration,the scores have been sent out 2.86 days before the scheduled release date. With a coefficient of variation that is just 5% for the third quarter, we can say with some confidence that the results of the October 2011 LSAT will be sent out about two to three days before the official release date of Wednesday, the 26^th of October.

Statistically speaking Centives predicts that the LSAT results for this quarter will come out on either the Sunday or the Monday before the scores are scheduled to go up. In the five year history that the dataset covers, the scores have never been released on a Sunday. Therefore, Centives predicts that the results for the October 2011 LSAT will be released on Monday, the 24^th of October.

Get updates on our twitter, or check back on this page.

Update 1: 24th October, 1pm EST, They’re still not out. Could the LSAT perhaps be planning to release the scores on the date that they actually said they would? They came out at 3:28pm EST in the previous quarter though, so we might yet see a Monday release.

Update 2: 24th October, 3pm EST, Icons on the LSAT site should turn grey about an hour before the scores are released.

Update 3: 24th October, 4pm EST, It’s looking increasingly like they aren’t coming out today (Monday). We’ll update our twitter feed if things change but it seems that for the first time in many years LSAT scores will come out either on, or the day before, their scheduled release date.

Update 4: 24th October, 4:30pm EST, Centives can now confirm that the buttons are starting to turn grey and that the scores will come out TODAY as predicted! Good luck everybody.

On our editorials page you can find other interesting articles such as the Centives Monopoly Property Value Calculator, and the most effective version of the Justice League according to data from the FBI.

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